Taming Covid-19 Epidemic in São Paulo with a Logistic Model and Non-Pharmaceutical Measures

Author(s): Marcelo Domingos Marchesin

In this paper I use the simple logistic mathematical model to represent the development of COVID-19 epidemic in São Paulo city under quarantine regime and I estimate the total amount of time it is necessary to decrease the number of seriously ill patients in order to reduce the demand for hospital beds of Intensive Care Units (ICU) to tolerable levels. Clearly the same reasoning and mathematical methods used in here can be used for any other city in similar conditions of social isolation.