Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Rice Yields in Cameroon: The Future?

Author(s): Godom Moise and Tchouassi Gérard

The aim of this study is to determine the dynamic effects of climate change on rice yield in the far north of Cameroon. To achieve this, the Pesaran et al. [1] bounds co-integration test was performed on rice yield, temperature and rainfall variations by applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) estimation method over the 1975-2021 period. The following results were obtained: The rainfall variations have negative short- and long-term impacts on rice yield, i.e. a 1% increase in rainfall variation implies a 3.6% and 1.14% decrease in rice yield in the short and long term respectively; the rural population growth rate has a negative impact on rice yield in the short term, and a positive one in the long term. In view of the results, it is recommended that rice farmers become aware of the negative dynamic effects of climate change on rice cultivation by applying climate-resilient rice-growing methods.