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The Cyclical Sine Model Explanation for Climate Change

Author(s): D E Nierode

The global warming/climate change underway on earth today is a totally natural occurrence caused by solar cycles with solid scientific and historical support. Earth temperatures are controlled by three solar cycles of nominally 1,000, 70, and 11 years. A supporting 73-year cycle within measured earth temperatures is documented in this work. The earth is currently in the upswing part of its normal temperature cycle. Very warm (Medieval Warming) and very cold (Little Ice Age) temperature epochs have been historically documented on earth for at least the last 3,000 years. The primary 1,000-year solar cyclicity was first estimated to be approximately every 1,500 ± 500 (1,000 - 2,000) years from many, diverse scientific studies [1]. The explanation for the earth’s temperature increases since 1850 is captured in a mathematical model called the Cyclical Sine Model. This model fits measured temperatures since 1850, past climate epochs, and correlates closely with the thousand year cyclicity of solar activity from 14C/12C ratio studies [2], Bond Atlantic drift ice cycles [3,4], sunspot history [5], the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [6], and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [7]. In addition, this model quantitively presents an explanation for the time span 1945-1975 when an impending new ice age was feared [8].

This work shows that the temperature and climate conditions currently on earth today are very similar to the earth in about 930 when the maximum temperature of the Medieval Warming epoch was still about 210 years away. The Cyclical Sine Model predicts that we are also currently 210 years away from the next maximum temperature on earth.

Measured earth temperatures for the next several years will validate either the Cyclical Sine Model or the UNIPCC model which conjectures that greenhouse gasses are controlling future earth temperatures. The near-term predictions for future temperatures of these two models are significantly different. The Figure 1 below will demonstrate which model best fits these future measured values. A full explanation for this Figure 1 is detailed in the rest of this paper. Currently 2021 and 2022 earth temperatures are very similar and fit the Cyclical Sine Model best.

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