County Mammogram Uptake can be Predicted from Social Determinants of Health, but Patterns Do Not Hold for Individual Patients

Author(s): Matthew Davis, Kit Simpson, Vanessa Diaz, Alexander V. Alekseyenko

Purpose: The objective of this study is to describe patterns in barriers to breast cancer screening uptake with the end goal of improving screening adherence and decreasing the burden of mortality due to breast cancer. This study looks at social determinants of health and their association to screening and mortality. It also investigates the extent that models trained on county data are generalizable to individuals.

Methods: County level screening uptake and age adjusted mortality due to breast cancer are combined with the Centers for Disease Controls Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) to train a model predicting screening uptake rates. Patterns learned are then applied to de-identified electronic medical records from individual patients to make predictions on mammogram screening follow through.

Results: Accurate predictions can be made about a county’s breast cancer screening uptake with the SVI. However, the association between increased screening, and decreased age adjusted mortality, doesn’t hold in areas with a high proportion of minority residents. It is also shown that patterns learned from county SVI data have little discriminative power at the patient level.

Conclusion: This study demonstrates that social determinants in the SVI can explain much of the variance in county breast cancer screening rates. However, these same patterns fail to discriminate which patients will have timely follow through of a mammogram screening test. This study also concludes that the core association between increased screening and decreased age adjusted mortality does not hold in high proportion minority areas.

Objective: The objective of this study is to describe patterns in social determinants of health and their association with female breast cancer screening uptake, age adjusted breast cancer mortality rate and the extent that models trained on county data are generalizable to individuals.