Tahmina Israt khanam^1*, Shirin Akter², Shahrina Aftien Jani³, Sharmin Jahan Ema⁴, Meherun Nesa MIM⁵, Kariul Islam⁶

¹Principal, Victoria Nursing college, Cumilla, Bangladesh

²Senior Lecturer, Victoria Nursing college, Cumilla, Bangladesh

³Lecturer, Victoria Nursing college, Cumilla, Bangladesh

⁴Lecturer, Victoria Nursing college, Cumilla, Bangladesh

⁵Lecturer, Victoria Nursing college, Cumilla, Bangladesh

⁶Chief Researcher, International Online Journal Hub-IOJH, Dhaka, Bangladesh

^*Corresponding Author: Tahmina Israt khanam, Principal, Victoria Nursing college, Cumilla, Bangladesh.

Received: 22 July 2025; Accepted: 28 July 2025; Published: 20 August 2025.

Article Information

Citation: Tahmina Israt khanam, Shirin Akter, Shahrina Aftien Jani, Sharmin Jahan Ema, Meherun Nesa MIM, Kariul Islam. Climate Change Impacts and Regional Adaptation Patterns in Bangladesh: Evidence from 2018–2024. Journal of Environmental Science and Public Health. 9 (2025): 38-48.

DOI: 10.26502/jesph.96120220

Abstract

Keywords

Climate Change, Regional Adaptation, Green House effect, Coastal region.

Article Details

1. Introduction

Bangladesh, a flat South Asian nation, is one of the most climate-exposed countries in the world. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2021) describes that human-caused greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions—mainly due to fossil fuel burning, deforestation, industrial processes, and agriculture—have caused global warming since the mid-20th century [1]. The temperature at the surface of the Earth has increased approximately 1.1°C over pre-industrial levels, corresponding with higher atmospheric GHG concentrations [2]. South Asia is not a significant emitter of greenhouse gases but has disproportionate exposure. India and Bangladesh, for example, suffer from increased flooding, heatwaves, and tropical cyclones [3]. Bangladesh only releases around 0.4% of the world's CO₂ emissions but has among the highest climate vulnerability [4]. Local research illustrates this contradiction, especially for those who rely on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and fisheries [5]. One of the greenhouse effects most extensively researched in Bangladesh is sea-level rise. One meter of rise would flood 17% of the country and 20 million individuals. Coastal regions of Khulna, Barisal, and Chattogram are especially susceptible. Dasgupta et al. confirmed again that sea-level rise and land subsidence threaten agriculture and habitability in these areas [6]. Bangladesh agriculture is very climate-sensitive. Greenhouse warming causes erratic rainfall, droughts, and saltwater intrusion into coastal zones. Basak et al. set rice yields to decrease by 8–17% in 2050 due to climate stress, especially in the southwestern regions of Bangladesh [7,8]. Rahman et al. found that rising temperatures and humidity facilitate the spread of vector-borne illnesses like dengue and malaria. Climate-related catastrophes also contribute to malnutrition and mental illness, particularly in susceptible populations [9]. Climate displacement is on the rise. Evidence suggests that migration may rise due to flooding, cyclones, and sea level rise [10]. Referring to "climate refugees" highlights necessity for both local adaptation as well as international recognition of migration as a reaction to climate impacts. Bangladesh has taken a front position in climate adaptation. The Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) in 2009 focused on food security, disaster risk management, and low-carbon development. Fresh policies like the Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan (2021) give green growth and resilience a central place [11]. Indigenous adaptation—e.g., raised homesteads and livelihood diversification—is documented, yet constrained by limited infrastructure and finance [12]. Small-scale solar succeeded in expanding energy access in rural areas, but large-scale clean energy transitions are stymied [13]. This study examines greenhouse effects on the environment, economy, and society in five biggest divisions of Bangladesh—Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, Barisal, and Rajshahi—and suggests green mitigation and adaptation.

2. Methods

The Observation Technique is applied in the present study to assess the impact of the greenhouse effect in five major Bangladeshi domains—Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, Barisal, and Rajshahi—from 2018 to 2024. As a non-obtrusive qualitative research tool, structured non-participant observation enabled environmental and socio-economic changes to be documented systematically without direct interference. Observation checklists and guides provided consistency and reliability. The primary indicators were visible crop loss, altered rainfall patterns, river flow regime changes, water salinity, and adaptive community practices such as homesteads on high ground or altered farming practices. Field notes, GPS points, and photographs were collected and analyzed thematically to ascertain emerging patterns and location-specific climate vulnerabilities. Observations were validated by meteorological data and government reports for the authenticity of data. In addition to the field observations, a computational investigation of climate impact on rice yields from 2018 to 2024 was carried out using Python 3.9. Data manipulation was accomplished using pandas 1.5.3, and statistical modeling using statsmodels 0.13.5. Plots were generated using matplotlib and seaborn. Analytical techniques included Pearson correlation, Granger causality, and ARIMA modeling with exogenous variables (rainfall, temperature) for yield prediction up to 2027. Stationarity of time series was checked by the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. The efficiency of the model was determined through RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). This two-pronged approach—computational and observational—allowed for both quantitative precision and qualitative context, enabling effective analysis of the regionalized environmental and agricultural consequences of the greenhouse effect in Bangladesh.

3. Results

Climate Parameters (Temperature, Rainfall, Sea-Level Rise) Each of Bangladesh's five regions from 2018 to 2024 saw an increase in temperature uniformly. Dhaka's average temperature rose from 30.1°C in 2018 to 31.5°C in 2024, whereas Rajshahi saw the highest increase from 31.4°C to 32.8°C. Concurrently, rain fell progressively less in all regions, while the Dhaka yearly rainfall decreased from 2200 mm to 1900 mm and Rajshahi saw the largest decrease from 2100 mm to 1500 mm. Sea level rise was a concerning topic at coastal regions: Khulna's rise decreased from 4.0 cm in 2018 to 5.3 cm in 2024 and Chittagong's rise decreased from 3.5 cm to 4.7 cm. In contrast, interior Rajshahi experienced little sea-level rise, increasing from 0.0 cm to only 0.3 cm over the seven years.

Table 1: Climate Parameters (Temperature, Rainfall, Sea-Level Rise).

Agricultural Yield, Flood Events, and Health Impacts Crop yield fell consistently in all regions, an indicator of climate stress. Dhaka's, for instance, fell from 4.9 MT/ha in 2018 to 4.2 MT/ha in 2024, whereas Khulna's declined from 4.2 MT/ha to a paltry 3.6 MT/ha. Alongside, there was also an increase in flood frequency: Khulna saw flood events go up from 4 to 7, and Dhaka from 2 to 5. Health cases also showed a drastic increase, with Dhaka seeing the number go up from 5,000 to 6,500 and Khulna from 4,000 to 5,200. Trends like these show a direct correlation between worsening climatic conditions and adverse impacts on agriculture as well as public health.

Table 2: Agricultural Yield, Flood Events, and Health Impacts.

The economic damage rose linearly across all areas, with Dhaka's rising from 3,000 million BDT in 2018 to 4,200 million BDT in 2024 and that of Chittagong rising from 4,500 to 5,700 million BDT. Even the water scarcity worsened, particularly in Rajshahi, where the availability fell from 7,000 MCM to 6,400 MCM. Concurrently, energy use rose, aligning with increased dependence on electricity due to heat stress and demands of development—energy use in Dhaka rose from 16,000 million kWh to 19,000, and that of Chittagong rose from 12,000 to 15,000. This is in line with increasing pressures on economic as well as natural resources due to climate variability.

Table 3: Economic Loss, Water Scarcity, and Energy Consumption.

Air Pollution, Forest Loss, Policies, Migration, and Awareness Levels of air pollution also rose alarmingly; Dhaka's concentration of PM grew from 200 µg/m³ in 2018 to 260 µg/m³ in 2024, and that of Chittagong climbed from 180 to 220. Deforestation was strongest in coastal areas—Chittagong's forest cover loss grew from 12,000 ha to 15,000 ha, and Khulna's from 8,000 to 11,000 ha. Migration grew proportionately: Dhaka registered a spike from 20,000 to 33,000 climate migrants, while Chittagong did so from 15,000 to 26,000. Government response was equally proportional with policy rising from 3–4 in 2018 to 8–9 in 2024. Public awareness campaigns also rose with awareness in Dhaka going up from 60% to 90%, and from 35% to 65% for Rajshahi.

Table 4: Air Pollution, Forest Loss, Policies, Migration, and Awareness Levels.

Plotted lines indicate a clear increase in deforestation and climate adaptation support from all five divisions from 2018 to 2024. Deforestation is most prominent in Chittagong, increasing steadily from 3,000 hectares in 2018 to 4,200 hectares in 2024, followed by Khulna (2,500 to 3,700 hectares) and Barisal (2,200 to 3,400 hectares). Dhaka, despite diminishing urban deforestation growth, rises from 2,000 to 3,200 hectares, and Rajshahi experiences the smallest but consistent increase from 1,500 to 2,100 hectares. Consequently, foreign assistance replicates these patterns, with Dhaka the most aided country, seeing aid levels rise from 15 million USD in 2018 to 30 million USD in 2024. Chittagong and Khulna record high aid rises from 10 to 25 million USD and 12 to 25 million USD respectively due to their exposure and widespread deforestation. Barisal and Rajshahi are comparatively lower in their aid, rising from 8 to 16 million USD and 6 to 13 million USD, respectively.

Figure 1: Trends in Deforestation (Ha) and International Aid for Climate Adaptation (Million USD) in Bangladesh Regions (2018-2024).

Table 5: Gender-Based Vulnerabilities (2018-2024).

Gender-based vulnerabilities are highest in coastal and rural regions like Barisal and Khulna, where women are often more dependent on agriculture and face challenges such as displacement due to floods and cyclones. Awareness of gender-based vulnerabilities is improving over time.

Table 6: Household Adaptation Strategies (2018-2024).

Household adaptation strategies are increasing, with Dhaka leading in the adoption of climate resilience measures due to urbanization and government programs. Coastal regions like Chittagong, Khulna, and Barisal are adopting more adaptive agricultural practices and flood-resistant housing.

Table 7: Agriculture: Other Crops (e.g., Vegetables, Fruits) (2018-2024).

Agriculture of vegetables and fruits is diversifying in response to changing climatic conditions. Dhaka, with its proximity to urban markets, sees the highest production, while Chittagong, Khulna, and Barisal focus on fruits and vegetables that are more resilient to climate impacts, such as drought-resistant crops.

Table 8: Infrastructure Damage Due to Extreme Weather Events (2018-2024).

Infrastructure damage due to extreme weather events is higher in coastal regions like Chittagong, Khulna, and Barisal, which are prone to cyclones and flooding. Dhaka sees significant infrastructure damage due to urban flooding, while Rajshahi faces less damage but still suffers from occasional heavy rainfall.

Figure 2: Time Series Forecasting.

The five-region time series Bangladeshi rice yield data (2018-2027) show a consistent downward trend for all regions, with Dhaka experiencing the highest decline of 0.12 MT/ha/year and the other four regions (Chittagong, Khulna, Barisal, and Rajshahi) experiencing a lower but equal rate of decline of 0.10 MT/ha/year. Rajshahi has the maximum yields throughout the whole period (from 5.00 MT/ha in 2018 and likely to reach 4.10 MT/ha by 2027), and then come in between are Barisal and Dhaka, while Chittagong and Khulna consistently have the lowest returns. The historical data (2018-2024) indicate linear declines in every region, with projections (2025-2027) also suggesting continuation of these negative trends, suggesting a disconcerting decline in Bangladesh's rice productivity of approximately 21-23% over the decade, with 95% confidence intervals increasing as the projection further out in time, indicating increasing uncertainty in the projections.

Inferential statistics has significant policy implications. Granger causality shows strong temperature-yield correlation only at Chittagong (p = 0.0309), making it a climate-sensitive hotspot. Other areas show no such correlation and thus imply stronger non-climate drivers. ADF test fails to detect any stationarity, thereby suggesting structural breaks. Forecasts are trustworthy (MAPE < 2.4%, with the exception of Dhaka), though possibly overfitted. Yield is decreasing evenly across regions (−0.10 to −0.12 MT/ha/year), without regional difference (ANOVA p = 0.4261), which suggests a national-scale problem.

Table 9: Statistical Diagnostics and Forecast Performance Metrics for Regional Rice Yield Models (Bangladesh, 2018–2027).

Temperature and rainfall are very important factors that influence rice yield in Bangladesh. Correlation shows very high negative relationship of yield with temperature (r = –0.9884 to –1.0000) and very high positive relationship with rainfall (r = 0.9849 to 1.0000). Regression shows that yield goes down by 0.3048 MT/ha per °C, and rainfall has low negative effect (–0.0011 MT/ha/mm), which may be due to excess or misplaced rain. The contrast reveals multicollinearity or confounders.

Table 10: Correlation and Regression Metrics Linking Climate Variables to Rice Yield Decline (Bangladesh, 2018–2027).

4. Discussion

Between 2018 and 2024, Bangladesh climate patterns—rising temperature, falling rainfall, sea-level rise, reduced rice production, and increased floods—reflect recent studies. Islam et al. noted severe warming, especially in the southwest, corresponding to the rising temperatures of Dhaka and Khulna. They also noted falling rainfall in the north, corresponding to the Rajshahi trend. Coastal sea-level increase along coastlines like Khulna and Barisal reflects IPCC projections identifying Bangladesh's coast as highly vulnerable [14,15]. Mamun et al. found that temperature and rainfall changes negatively impact Boro rice yield due to heat and water stress, overlapping with decreasing yields documented [16]. Akter et al. found rising flash flood risks in the northeast due to rainfall variability, supplementing increases in flooding in coastal and northeast regions [17]. Health effects such as malaria and diarrhoea increased across the country, particularly in Dhaka, corroborating Hashizume et al., who attributed temperature increase to increased urban child diarrhoea cases [18]. Economic costs were greatest in coastal Chittagong and Barisal, agreeing with ADB estimates of up to 2.5% of GDP lost per year due to climate effects [19]. Water scarcity escalated in Dhaka and Khulna, as per Rahman et al.'s saltwater intrusion and groundwater overexploitation report [20]. Forest degradation rose from 2018–2024, especially in Chittagong and Khulna, because of urbanization and agriculture, as per Ahmed et al. [21]. The degradation continues even as government policies are on the rise, suggesting loopholes in enforcement [22]. Migration to Khulna and Barisal due to floods and salinity aligns with climate stress anticipated displacement [23]. Climate adaptation assistance grew in Dhaka and vulnerable coastal areas, as previous research registered in high-risk areas [24]. Gender exposure grew, especially rural coastal areas, agreeing with Huq and Nasreen's findings about greater exposure for women [25]. Adaptation efforts increased, particularly in urban/coastal regions, through government and community efforts, consistent with Alam et al. [26]. Resilient agriculture proliferated in Dhaka and Chittagong, consistent with responses to unpredictable climatic uncertainties [27]. Our yield decline finding is congruent with Ahmad et al. (2021), who reported coastal temperature sensitivity [28]. Our correlation specific to Chittagong (p=0.0309) differs from Sarker and Alam (2023), who reported uniform vulnerability [32,34]. Our high degree of negative temperature correlation (−0.9884 to −1.000) and rate of yield reduction (−0.3048 MT/ha/°C) support Rahman et al. (2022), while our positive rainfall correlation agrees with Hussain (2020) [31,33]. Our low rainfall regression of −0.0011 MT/ha/mm is contrary to Ahmed and Khan (2024), which showed consistent positive effects. Our 21–23% estimated yield loss is less steep than Hossain et al. (2019)'s 15–18% [29,30]. Equal rates of decline (all but Dhaka) substantiate Thomas and Roy's (2021) perception of systemic, rather than localized, problems [35]. The high accuracy of our model (MAPE < 2.4%) beats Karim (2023)'s 5.7% but invites overfitting suspicions.

Limitations of The Study

This study’s reliance on the observation method limits its ability to capture underlying causal factors or quantify the extent of environmental changes. The non-participant approach restricts deeper engagement with local communities, potentially overlooking nuanced socio-economic dynamics. Observations were confined to five regions, which may not fully represent all vulnerable areas of Bangladesh. Additionally, seasonal variations and short-term observations might not reflect long-term trends.

5. Conclusion

The greenhouse effect presents acute, localized challenges for Bangladesh, as evidenced by rising temperatures, erratic weather, salinity intrusion, sea-level rise, and frequent floods and cyclones. This study, based on field observations in Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, Barisal, and Rajshahi, reveals region-specific climate impacts—coastal areas suffer chronic flooding, urban centers face heat stress and migration, and rural zones struggle with food security. The findings emphasize the need for localized adaptation strategies over uniform national policies. Moreover, the project demonstrates the value of integrating climate awareness into higher education and highlights the benefits of observation-based research in building institutional and student capacity.

Recommendation

To effectively combat the localized impacts of the greenhouse effect in Bangladesh, policymakers must adopt region-specific adaptation, integrate climate education, bolster community resilience, and invest in sustainable infrastructure.

Funding: No funding sources

Conflict of interest: None declared

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