Modeling Life Expectancy for Municipalities in the Netherlands over of the period 1996-2019

Author(s): Wim P. Krijnen, Lotta Meijerink, Laurens Zwakhals, Fanny Janssen, Fons van der Lucht

Decentralizations of governmental tasks in the field of public health and well being, make analysis of Life Expectancy (LE) data at the municipality level more important for obtaining insight into local health trends. On the basis of 4-year moving average Chiang II type LE determinations from 355 Dutch municipalities over the period 1996 - 2019, the characteristics of their LE growth trajectories were investigated by a mixed four parameter logistic regression model with random parameters for municipalities. For almost all municipalities it was found that their LE values in time fitted an S-shape type of growth trajectory very well, this included municipalities with only 10,000 inhabitants. Within the study period the LE increase varies between 2.0 and 5.9 years and the end LE levels vary between 78.8 and 86.0 years over all municipalities. The maximal LE growth rate of 0.38 LE years was attained at February 2007. However, the LE growth rate drastically decreased to 0.02 increase per year in 2019, strongly suggesting stagnation in LE growth. There are large differences observed between municipalities on several aspects of LE growth. The estimated growth curves for all municipalities represent their differences and similarities in trends of life expectancy over the period 1996-2019 of Dutch municipalities quite well. The results contribute to a better understanding of local life expectancy trends in time.